What is Hyperthesis?
Hyperthesis introduces a fundamentally new mechanism for predictive trading: conditional betting. Unlike traditional prediction markets where users must pick a single outcome at fixed odds, Hyperthesis lets users express a full belief distribution across all possible outcomes.
The Core Bottleneck We Solve
Prediction markets have always faced a fundamental problem: the need for upfront liquidity and instant counterparties. Without them, markets either fail to launch or suffer distorted prices.
- Require immediate counterparties
- Suffer from slippage on large trades
- Need pre-seeded liquidity
- Limited to high-attention events
- Asynchronous matching
- No slippage or market impact
- Markets start without liquidity
- Enables niche, time-sensitive markets
How Conditional Betting Works
Conditional betting enables participants to express probabilistic beliefs and execute trades that dynamically optimize exposure over time. Here's how:
- Express Full Beliefs: Instead of picking one outcome, users allocate probabilities across all outcomes (summing to 100%).
- Dynamic Routing: The system monitors market prices and only commits capital when odds are favorable compared to your beliefs.
- Conviction Scaling: Your exposure for each outcome is limited by your conviction ratio, preventing overexposure to low-confidence outcomes.
- Optional Locking: Users can lock positions at current market prices, converting them to traditional fixed bets.
Imagine visiting a fruit market. You're equally happy to buy apples or oranges, willing to pay up to $5 for either. Rather than purchasing immediately, you instruct a broker to wait and acquire whichever fruit offers the better deal throughout the day. The broker watches price movements and purchases the most undervalued option. This is how a conditional bet behaves.
Key Benefits
Your positions automatically adapt to find value, without manual intervention or constant monitoring.
Asynchronous matching means you can place $100,000 trades without moving the market or suffering immediate price impact.
The matching algorithm strictly enforces this guarantee, regardless of market volatility or timing.
Why Now?
Prediction markets are part of a broader shift toward info finance: markets designed for extracting signal from human and AI judgment at scale. In the same way AMMs unlocked tokens and pumpfun unlocked memes, Hyperthesis unlocks belief.
We are building the infrastructure layer to make intelligence liquid.