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Examples & Simulations

Explore real-world scenarios and interactive simulations to understand how conditional betting works in practice.

Interactive Demo

Try the Live Demo

Experience conditional betting in action with our interactive demo. Place bets, adjust beliefs, and watch how the algorithm routes your capital.

Launch Demo

Example Scenarios

Sports Betting

Scenario: NBA Finals - Lakers vs Celtics

  • User belief: Lakers 65%, Celtics 35%
  • Bet size: $1,000
  • Market starts at 50/50

Result: System routes to Lakers when market undervalues them. If market shifts to 70/30 Lakers, system starts routing to Celtics for value.

Election Prediction

Scenario: Presidential Election - 3 Candidates

  • User belief: A=45%, B=40%, C=15%
  • Bet size: $5,000
  • Market volatility throughout campaign

Result: Conditional bet adapts to polls and news, capturing value as market overreacts to events. Maximum exposures: A=$5,000, B=$4,444, C=$1,667.

Corporate Event

Scenario: Merger Approval

  • User belief: Approved 80%, Rejected 20%
  • Bet size: $10,000
  • Regulatory uncertainty causes swings

Result: Strong conviction means full exposure if approved ($10,000) but limited exposure if rejected ($2,500). Protects against black swan regulatory decisions.

Liquidity Simulation

Multi-User Market Dynamics

See how conditional betting creates deep liquidity without traditional market makers:

Traditional Market

  • • User 1: Wants to bet $100k on A
  • • User 2: Wants to bet $100k on B
  • • Problem: No liquidity, can't match

Hyperthesis

  • • Both users place conditional bets
  • • System matches asynchronously
  • • Full $200k liquidity created